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Post by Nick on Mar 2, 2019 1:50:52 GMT
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Post by Nick on Mar 2, 2019 4:20:43 GMT
MERGE RANKINGS - Coming into the round
1. Emily - Emily comes into the merge having ran both of her previous tribes and as a result a plethora of allies. She just made a huge move in having Kaylee play her idol but also voting against her to make Mark/Kaylee seem like a duo coming into the merge. She also is armed with an idol nobody knows about. The two questions Emily faces coming into the merge are: will she be exposed for playing all sides? Will she be able to continue to downplay her target?
2. Noah - One of the shocks of the season is how well Noah has been playing so far. He hasn't had his name written down once premerge, despite being an over the top player, and he kind of ran nu-Kalmar. He comes into the merge with Ohana, an alliance of his creation on Kalmar, and the Myvatn 5. Alongside him, he has Doug, and if they play it right they should be able to play the middle for the time being before they make a move with the numbers he's gotten pre-merge. The huge concern with Noah will be that he can let own messiness gets in the way, and he's walking a tightrope so he can't afford to be messy.
3. Doug - Like Noah, Doug comes into this merge with options from both of his previous tribes, which will allow him to play the middle if he chooses. Additionally, he comes into the merge with probably the best relationship with Stephanie from nu-Kalmar, so it'll be interesting to see if (and how) he uses that bond. He really could be 2b with Noah, but I rank him behind just slightly because he's probably on the bottom of that Myvatn 5, and I don't get the sense he realizes that yet. But, he has no real target, and a high ceiling of potential - especially the more dedicated he becomes. He's also playing in Noah's shadows right now, so it'll be interesting to see how/when/if he steps out of it.
4. Charity - Charity coming into the merge in a good spot? Wow, is this literally every game she's ever played? I mentioned this pregame, but having played with Charity before, if I had to bet my life on one person this season who would make the merge with some power, I would've said Charity. Her pre-merge game is just so solid. She took out a direct threat to her game in Shon a few rounds ago (he was like a snake in the grass and she was like a lawnmower). She comes into the merge with Ohana and a bond with Brian, who she's saved several times. She also has at least some connection with Stephanie, in comparison to a lot of others, so we'll see how she plays that. Perhaps the biggest thing she has going for her is her duo with Taylor, which is an even pair where both players have their shit together, both are good socially, and is the perfect group for Charity not be clearly the bigger threat between the two, so if they get clocked, Taylor could actually be the target instead, which Charity needs. Charity does have a target on her back, specifically from Emily, so she faces a bit of an initial hurdle coming into the merge, but she should be able to make the hump if she plays it right.
5. Taylor - I can easily see Taylor winning this game right now. Looking at this merge she comes in without any real target. Sterlu has been destroyed pre-merge, and although it is rough for her that Jenn just missed the merge, she does have a good relationship with Andrew - the only other surviving Sterlu. Also, she is a part of Ohana and is the other half of the strong, mostly undetected, duo with Charity which gives her options through her and a likely target in front of her. She should be able to maneuver this merge as she wants because she has the personality to click with a lot of the people she has yet to meet, and I can see her using Andrew to make a huge move at some point. She needs to work on building relationships better, especially with Emily and Stephanie because I think they'll both be people she could be interested in making a move with down the line. She needs to use the early merge to set up her end game, because while she might not be driving anything initially (that'll likely be Charity's role in their duo), she should be able to make that opportunity present itself later on.
[gap]
6. Kaylee - What separates Kaylee from the players below her is that she has solid options coming into the merge. She has the Chicken Nuggets, she has (at the moment) a hidden duo with Kaylee, a seen, yet unthreatening, duo with Mark, and she's coming in having just played an idol correctly on herself so her confidence is high and she could be seen as an appealing option to people she hasn't met yet. She's also active and around enough to make bonds with those people, and likeable enough to want to carrying a conversation with (well, unless your name is Sherlip and she perpetually has you pressed). What she has working against her is that she is totally unprepared to enter a merge. She's not going to be a target, and she's going to be able to play the game she wants, but she wants to play the easy, safe game of staying Myvatn strong, which is just not going to happen, and if she stays dead set on that plan, she'll sink her own chances. Much of her game she's used Emily as a crutch (which is definitely not a bad crutch to have lol) and Emily will probably be a target ahead of her, but I'm concerned how she'll play without Emily. And for her to win, she can't be sitting next to Emily and I don't see Kaylee making that move, so she needs to be prepared to actually play, not just be used as a number, without Emily. It'll be interesting to see how Kaylee reacts as the merge goes on and if she's playing to win, or playing to make the end.
[gap]
7. Brian - Brian is a damn MESS. I still can't get over trying to flip on Stephanie lmao. That being said, he rebounded and wasn't on the bottom of nu-Kalmar, and has a bond with Charity, but is also aware of what they were trying to do to him and Steph, so it'll be interesting to see if him and Stephanie ever get on the same page and work together rather than against each other, especially since it would be in both of their best interest. But aside from that, Brian isn't coming into the merge with that many options and he'll likely have to rely somewhat on Charity and co. in the early merge. I also don't think he has really any threat on him, and I see him getting dragged for a bit unless he gets in his own way.
8. Stephanie - I actually think Stephanie has more winner potential than some of the people ahead of her on this list, but if she's going to do that it'll be a result of her putting herself in the right situations round after round. She really comes into the merge with absolutely nobody (maybe Griffin???) as she knew she was on the bottom of nu-Kalmar because they just wouldn't really talk to her. She has loose connections with Charity (who she seems as very sketchy), Noah (who she likes but recognizes he's messy), and Doug (who she liked when they talk, but it doesn't seem to be that often). But she also recognizes exactly what they were trying to set up between her and Brian, yet she hasn't made much progress with Brian going about fixing that - although I predict they'll have time in the merge to do just that. The big question mark for her, aside from Brian, is how she meshes with the Myvatn's and Andrew, who she hasn't met yet, because otherwise her options will be almost non existent. I expect her to stay UTR for a bit, and then potentially make her rise, but it's just really tough to play the merge without even one strong ally or any potential connections, and in her first game it'll be an uphill climb, but I think she can rise to the challenge once she gets her feet under her.
9. Andrew - I really think andrew's game can be summed up by that gif I made of him during round 1 where he's sick and half asleep. I just feel like everyone else in the game is playing harder than he is, and although he is clearly very smart and seemingly likeable and approachable, he's kind of an enigma. He just lost Jenn, leaving Emily as one of his closest allies - who isn't with him, and have plentiful options ahead of him. So, I see him relying a ton on Taylor and going where she goes. I can see Andrew being the FTC loser (not necessarily a goat, even if he doesn't get a single vote) because he isn't really trying to bond with people or make those relationships and he also isn't pushing an agenda, nor does he seem to have one. I don't think there is any reason to target Andrew, which is why he is ahead of the other two, but he'll need to step it up - which I think we all know he can - in order to be any type of threat. Like Steph, he needs to get his feet under him, but I think he could have a good thing going with Taylor.
10. Mark - We all love Mark, but I don't think any of us see him as a potential winner. I also don't think we know the direction of his game either. Mark's game is the Chicken Nuggets, which Emily is clearly driving, but even though Kaylee is in the backseat with him, she's at least awake, Mark just seems passed out and is gonna wake up when they get there. Which is fine, I don't expect him to turn on his friends, but he also isn't preparing for much of a future should the Chicken Nuggets be fried by the other players. I can see him being a target because he's Myvatn and an unlikely target, but he's also really dropping the ball in creating those bonds to make others say "hey I want to keep mark around to make a move with". I have faith that Mark can and will be a part of a move once the Chicken Nuggets get disbanded (and if they don't, he's made final 3 which I think he'll be very happy with, but realistically Emily wins), but I have a hard time imagining him being the one pushing it or instigating it. The potential is there, but his willingness to be an active player needs to grow, and maybe being on the wrong side of a blindside will help light that fire.
11. Griffin - I swear I'm not putting Griffin last because I'm bitter he overslept Iguazu launch night and thus forced Danny Gluck to enter the game, and I actually have really enjoyed watching Griffin play. You can tell he's really enjoying it and I support his more than confessional a round. Even though a lot of the time he uses a lot of words to say pretty much nothing lmao. The issue with Griffin's game right now is that he legitimately has nobody. Shon was really all he had, and he's gone. Charity doesn't want to play with him and she doesn't really need him at this point. Nobody exactly trusts him either, and while he feels good with Emily, it's a false belief, and because he went after Kaylee, Emily is really leaving him out to dry. He also seems to be very adverse to gametalk, which make people weary of him and don't feel close to him, so that must change for him to get traction, because people do seem to like him, but they don't want to or think they can use him in the game. His reads also haven't been the greatest, so I don't have faith in his strategic ability to make those moves. what he really needs in this game is a wake up call (no pun intended) because I think he could with if he was next to the right people, and I think he best move would be aligning with Stephanie and Brian which although could be an uphill climb for those three, is possible and mutually beneficial. I expect him to struggle to even be somebody's number in the early part of merge, but if he can make it through, he is likeable enough to be a threat. He just needs one move, but he needs people to make that move with, and right now he has nobody.
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Post by Kyle on Mar 2, 2019 15:34:09 GMT
It's amazing how fast these rankings changed.
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Post by Kyle on Mar 2, 2019 15:40:43 GMT
Doug is woke af. I am super impressed by Doug this round and making a move against his OG tribe. He is effectively blowing up Emily's game who literally was untouchable. I think that his challenge will be finding someone who has his back because I thing as the numbers drop he is going to have a hard time getting the target off his back because I don't think he has anyone who will try to advocate for him if his name comes up for a blindside. He will probably need that conquest down the line... things could change but I think that even though he put himself into a good position for now, he needs to watch out as this new group moves forward.
Also props to Charity for putting this into action and starting the plan to blindside Noah (sounds like her and Doug talked and she got the numbers?) but I like this side of Charity. I feel like she is branching outside her comfort zone of making safe plays and playing a bit more aggressively.
I can't wait to see Andrew and Griffins reaction to Emily not really being with them.
Also Taylor is putting herself into a good position, and knowing her social game I predict she'll be around for a while.
Interested to see how Emily's idol will change things because she is really going to need it.
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