Post by John on Mar 8, 2019 19:58:20 GMT
Oh man, last round was some great viewing because I have to say it is just one of those rounds where everyone fucked up so much. Like seriously just a cluster fuck of a round for everyone which resulted in Taylor going. This was seriously just bad move for everyone because it really didn't fulfill anyone's needs that round. I'll go through all the groups now and exactly what went wrong this round.
EMILY'S MINIVAN
We've all jokingly made this reference, but after this round I am officially coining the Emily/Mark/Kaylee alliance as #theminivan. Emily is on the driver seat and Mark and Kaylee are the two kids in the back, sometimes causing a ruckus and distracting Emily from her getting this group to the end of the game. Emily is honestly putting on a master class of how to play these games, but even the best make mistakes and this round was one for Emily. This group's goal last round was to get rid of Charity and they pushed HARD for it. This was an awful game move on their part. I 100% understand where they were coming from, but in the greater they needed to step back and realize that just because it's the best move for their game doesn't mean it's the best for everyone. At first they were going to full on hard sell on this one. This Charity vote was not their hill to die on and they shouldn't have been acting like it was. In fact I think Taylor going was genuinely the better move here. It kept numbers on Kalmar to make them the move obvious threat. It separates Andrew/Charity which make them more workable. And it would have appeased Brian/Griffin and not been as shady as everything ended up being. The way they handled that round they outright announced despite being in an alliance they didn't trust the people they were with. It was all but missing a damn neon sign, especially with that Shadow Idol play. Damn honestly probably one of the worst moves I've ever seen. No offence Mark, but not only does it expose how close you all are, the way you phrased it just outright confirmed you didn't trust people when you still don't have confirmed numbers going into the next round. I genuinely think that was the nail in Mark's coffin of having any chance of winning, but I feel like there's so many players in that position right now (Mark, Kaylee, Andrew, Griffin) that they can easily have a Final 3 with just those type of players, so anything can happen.
THE "PAWNS"
Now onto my thoughts on Stephanie/Brian/Griffin who in my opinion (to different degrees) had a disastrous round. Stephanie to the least degree, Griffin in the middle but still pretty terrible and Brian the absolute worst. It all started off well with this group. They came together, they assessed Andrew as the target and how they would need to sell this to Myvatn. That really would have been the perfect move for them and honestly this group had ALL the leverage this round. The problem though, and what has fucked over a lot of people this season is total lack of follow through and execution. Nobody wanted to be the person that was driving this move and as a result it ended up being a clusterfuck. They were going up against the challenges they expected, the Myvatn's not wanting to do it and going against Emily specifically who was not only good at standing her ground and having conviction for the move she wanted. The first line of this plan was supposed to be Griffin who had all the sturdiness of a piece of paper in a win storm. He started the push for Andrew but caved so easily saying he'd be fine with Charity. Stephanie had solid rationale about not wanting to vote Charity, but even she was acting like she was open to voting her which showed no real strong sense. Then it was Brian who also waffled and was essentially blaming Griffin as being the one not wanting to Charity. The whole move lacked any kind of of conviction so I'm not surprised it didn't work, actually at that point I would have been surprised if it did. And the compromise was so stupid because the wildcard they wanted out survived who they still don't have great connection with. Honestly just a mess.
POST IMMUNITY
So now there's a lot going on post challenge and I'm really interested in seeing how it plays out. Brian did SO MUCH damage how he handled that round. The compromise ended up like him forcing his agenda, the whole plan got blamed on him and because the Myvatn's came out not trusting that alliance it has all but crumbled. Brian went off and I get where he came from, but he should have controlled his emotions more and kept everything in check. He is a target now because of how he handled that whole situation and how last minute it was.
This round for players like Brian/Griffin/Andrew/Charity it is so important for them to take a hit at Myvatn, but as of this point there's is not anti-Myvatn alliance or talks really. Maybe it will be a push closer to the vote, but this insistence on this voting block gameplay is eventually not going to work, and I think this is the round when it finally stops. Emily/Mark/Kaylee/Stephanie have actually become very solid because they put in the time with each other. They have spent hours talking and planning and Stephanie actually feels included and a part of that group. My one thing with Stephanie is I don't see her end game other than playing for 4th right now. She doesn't bring up being concerned about that alliance or anything. I have no clue what her actual end game plan is, and I understand she wants to stick with them because she personally likes them, but she will need to make a move.
At this rate though, if Myvatn squeak through this round, it may all come down to next round's Shadow Idol being the last thing that can stop them. Otherwise, we're looking at want would be a extremely deserving winner, but probably a less than stellar FTC.
EMILY'S MINIVAN
We've all jokingly made this reference, but after this round I am officially coining the Emily/Mark/Kaylee alliance as #theminivan. Emily is on the driver seat and Mark and Kaylee are the two kids in the back, sometimes causing a ruckus and distracting Emily from her getting this group to the end of the game. Emily is honestly putting on a master class of how to play these games, but even the best make mistakes and this round was one for Emily. This group's goal last round was to get rid of Charity and they pushed HARD for it. This was an awful game move on their part. I 100% understand where they were coming from, but in the greater they needed to step back and realize that just because it's the best move for their game doesn't mean it's the best for everyone. At first they were going to full on hard sell on this one. This Charity vote was not their hill to die on and they shouldn't have been acting like it was. In fact I think Taylor going was genuinely the better move here. It kept numbers on Kalmar to make them the move obvious threat. It separates Andrew/Charity which make them more workable. And it would have appeased Brian/Griffin and not been as shady as everything ended up being. The way they handled that round they outright announced despite being in an alliance they didn't trust the people they were with. It was all but missing a damn neon sign, especially with that Shadow Idol play. Damn honestly probably one of the worst moves I've ever seen. No offence Mark, but not only does it expose how close you all are, the way you phrased it just outright confirmed you didn't trust people when you still don't have confirmed numbers going into the next round. I genuinely think that was the nail in Mark's coffin of having any chance of winning, but I feel like there's so many players in that position right now (Mark, Kaylee, Andrew, Griffin) that they can easily have a Final 3 with just those type of players, so anything can happen.
THE "PAWNS"
Now onto my thoughts on Stephanie/Brian/Griffin who in my opinion (to different degrees) had a disastrous round. Stephanie to the least degree, Griffin in the middle but still pretty terrible and Brian the absolute worst. It all started off well with this group. They came together, they assessed Andrew as the target and how they would need to sell this to Myvatn. That really would have been the perfect move for them and honestly this group had ALL the leverage this round. The problem though, and what has fucked over a lot of people this season is total lack of follow through and execution. Nobody wanted to be the person that was driving this move and as a result it ended up being a clusterfuck. They were going up against the challenges they expected, the Myvatn's not wanting to do it and going against Emily specifically who was not only good at standing her ground and having conviction for the move she wanted. The first line of this plan was supposed to be Griffin who had all the sturdiness of a piece of paper in a win storm. He started the push for Andrew but caved so easily saying he'd be fine with Charity. Stephanie had solid rationale about not wanting to vote Charity, but even she was acting like she was open to voting her which showed no real strong sense. Then it was Brian who also waffled and was essentially blaming Griffin as being the one not wanting to Charity. The whole move lacked any kind of of conviction so I'm not surprised it didn't work, actually at that point I would have been surprised if it did. And the compromise was so stupid because the wildcard they wanted out survived who they still don't have great connection with. Honestly just a mess.
POST IMMUNITY
So now there's a lot going on post challenge and I'm really interested in seeing how it plays out. Brian did SO MUCH damage how he handled that round. The compromise ended up like him forcing his agenda, the whole plan got blamed on him and because the Myvatn's came out not trusting that alliance it has all but crumbled. Brian went off and I get where he came from, but he should have controlled his emotions more and kept everything in check. He is a target now because of how he handled that whole situation and how last minute it was.
This round for players like Brian/Griffin/Andrew/Charity it is so important for them to take a hit at Myvatn, but as of this point there's is not anti-Myvatn alliance or talks really. Maybe it will be a push closer to the vote, but this insistence on this voting block gameplay is eventually not going to work, and I think this is the round when it finally stops. Emily/Mark/Kaylee/Stephanie have actually become very solid because they put in the time with each other. They have spent hours talking and planning and Stephanie actually feels included and a part of that group. My one thing with Stephanie is I don't see her end game other than playing for 4th right now. She doesn't bring up being concerned about that alliance or anything. I have no clue what her actual end game plan is, and I understand she wants to stick with them because she personally likes them, but she will need to make a move.
At this rate though, if Myvatn squeak through this round, it may all come down to next round's Shadow Idol being the last thing that can stop them. Otherwise, we're looking at want would be a extremely deserving winner, but probably a less than stellar FTC.